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Arone spoke with Before the Bell to outline three things about markets right now “that investors should know, but probably don’t.”1. You write that investors might be surprised to hear that small- and mid-cap stocks have outperformed large-cap stocks over the past five months. Why do you think that’s surprising, and what does it say about markets? Most investors think that the S&P 500 has been outperforming everything else, largely dragged up by the performance of the Magnificent 7 (Amazon, Tesla, Alphabet, Meta, Apple, Microsoft and Nvidia). The big beneficiaries of that, I think, would be a surprise for most investors — those mid-cap stocks and small-cap stocks.
Persons: , Michael Arone, Arone, That’s, that’s, Jerome Powell, I’m, Warren Buffett, Berkshire Hathaway, Charlie Munger, Buffett, Greg Abel, Ajit Jain, Munger’s, Read, Parija Kavilanz Organizations: New, New York CNN, Wall, Federal Reserve, Bell, Apple, Microsoft, Nvidia, Treasury, Fed, Berkshire Hathaway, Oracle, Ikea Locations: New York, Berkshire, Woodstock, Nebraska, Omaha
On the surface, it may seem simple — global stocks are rallying, so there must be one universal driver, right? When this happens, the yen should strengthen and improve shareholder value in Japanese stocks, Arone said. "All of that gives you the ingredients you need to push stocks higher — not only U.S. stocks, but global stocks — in the next 12 months or so," he said. "I think that international stocks — Japan, Europe — have more room to go. Similar to Kelly, Kleintop recommended a more broad-based approach to playing this global rally.
Persons: It's, Charles Schwab's, Jeffrey Kleintop, they've, David Kelly, Michael Arone, Kelly, Arone, , Kleintop, Fred Imbert Organizations: U.S, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Nikkei, CNBC, Nvidia, Asset Management, Federal Reserve, European Central Bank and Bank of England, Bank of Japan, Tokyo Stock Exchange, State, Locations: United States, U.S, Europe, Japan, Korea, China, Asia, America, Eastern Europe, — Japan
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailInflation's 'last mile' remains most difficult part of the walk, says State Street's Michael AroneCNBC's Bob Pisani interviews Michael Arone, chief ETF strategist at State Street Global Advisors, about the state of the exchange-traded fund industry, the debate over active versus passive strategies, and more.
Persons: Michael Arone, Bob Pisani Organizations: State Street Global Advisors
Investors looking for income should be well-rewarded this year, once again, buying high-yield bonds, according to State Street. He's predicting high-yield bonds will again be one of the top-performing fixed-income sectors in 2024. High-yield bonds currently have spreads of 3.43 percentage points relative to Treasurys, according to the ICE BofA US High Yield Index Option-Adjusted Spread . Of course, investors should understand that high-yield bonds carry more risk than investment-grade debt. "They should be balancing the quality characteristics of high-yield bonds relative to the yield that those bonds are providing," he said.
Persons: Michael Arone, Arone Organizations: Bloomberg, Federal, ICE, CNBC Locations: United States
As attractive as today's yields may look on certain dividend-paying stocks, they only tell part of the story when you're choosing names for income. Lower interest rates make other income-generating assets, including dividend-paying stocks, more attractive compared to the risk-free yields on Treasurys. Dividend stocks took their lumps during 2022 as the Fed embarked on its rate hikes – consider that the Vanguard Dividend Appreciation ETF (VIG) posted a total return of negative 9% in 2022 – and rate-sensitive income stocks in the utilities and real estate sector suffered. Check with your brokerage to make sure you have dividends reinvested as your preference for individual stocks and ETFs. Picking the right names Dividend investors are seeing 2024 as a potential rebound year for these stocks, anticipating a broadening rally.
Persons: Michael Arone, Dow, VIG, would've, Grace Lee, , Dow Jones, Arone, Chris Hayes Organizations: SPDR, State, Federal, Dow Jones, Fed, Vanguard, CNBC Pro, IBM, Columbia, Opportunity, Walgreens, Alliance
Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) on November 02, 2023 in New York City. Friday's market reaction to the jobs report comes down to a simple premise: bad news is good news, as long as it isn't too bad. Slow, controlled growth is something the markets and the Fed are seeking in the current climate, negative growth is not. Despite market pricing, it seems like cuts aren't around the corner if recent statements from Fed officials are any indication. You could imagine a scenario where inflation is starting to settle and you want to lower real rates.
Persons: Stocks, nonfarm, Mike Loewengart, We've, Michael Arone, Jerome Powell, Thomas Barkin Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, Labor Department, Federal Reserve, Fed, Morgan Stanley's Global Investment, Markets, Traders, Group, State Street Global Advisors, Richmond Fed, CNBC PRO Locations: New York City
But the deceleration of inflation has slowed, and solid economic growth could keep inflation elevated or even send it higher. As a result, Powell and other Fed officials aren't yet willing to take a final rate hike off the table. The surge in Treasury yields has caused the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate to reach nearly 8%. Market analysts say an array of factors have combined to force up Treasury yields. As a result, higher Treasury rates may be needed to attract more buyers.
Persons: Jerome Powell, Powell, Michael Arone, , ” Powell, Christopher Waller Organizations: WASHINGTON, Federal, State Street Global Advisors, , Fed, Treasury, Wall Locations: Wall
"The Fed has never kept the target fed funds rate at peak levels for longer than nine months after a tightening cycle," Arone said. Nine months from now, at least based on history, the target fed funds rate is likely to be lower, not higher." He also sees lower rates ahead and pointed out the history of what happens with tight monetary policy. "The market is eager for lower rates or rate cuts. If the Fed has to rate cuts, it's likely because we're in recession or something in the capital markets is broken," he said.
Persons: Jerome Powell, aren't, Michael Arone, Powell, JPMorgan Chase, Jamie Dimon, Arone, Barry Sternlicht, , I'm, They've, Thomas Ryan, Nick Elfner, Elfner, Breckinridge, Street's Arone Organizations: Federal, U.S, SPDR, State Street Global Advisors, Fed, JPMorgan, Starwood Capital, Future Investment Initiative, Capital Economics, Breckinridge Capital Advisors Locations: United States, Saudi Arabia, U.S, Breckinridge
Economists surveyed by Dow Jones had been looking for a 4.7% acceleration in GDP, which also is adjusted for inflation. The sharp increase came due to contributions from consumer spending, increased inventories, exports, residential investment and government spending. Consumer spending, as measured by personal consumption expenditures, increased 4% for the quarter after rising just 0.8% in Q2, and was responsible for 2.7 percentage points of the total GDP increase. The GDP increase marked the biggest gain since the fourth quarter of 2021. At a time when many economists had thought the U.S. would be in the midst of at least a shallow recession, growth has kept pace due to consumer spending that has exceeded all expectations.
Persons: Dow Jones, Gross, Michael Arone, Jeffrey Roach, Arone, Price, Matthew Ryan Organizations: Gross, Commerce Department, Treasury, SPDR, State Street Global Advisors, Federal Reserve, Group, LPL, Labor Department, Federal, Hamas, CNBC Locations: U.S, Israel, Ukraine
Analysts expect a 0.4% year-over-year decline in third-quarter earnings for companies in the S&P 500 index, according to FactSet. Analysts expect America’s biggest bank to report earnings per share of $3.90 and revenue of $39.57 billion for the third quarter, according to Refinitiv. Citigroup, Wells Fargo and BlackRock also report earnings Friday. “Our children are in crisis, and it is up to us to save them,” Hochul said, comparing social media algorithms to cigarettes and alcohol. Those who opt out would receive chronological feeds instead, like in the early days of social media.
Persons: , Michael Arone, Jay Hatfield, ” Hatfield, Banks, JPMorgan Chase, Jamie Dimon, Dimon, Wells, Chris Isidore, Darren Woods, Read, Kathy Hochul, Letitia James, Michael Mulgrew, Sen, Andrew Gounardes, Nily, , ” Hochul, Athena Jones, Brian Fung Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, CNN, Investors, State Street Global Advisors, stoke, Infrastructure Capital Management, JPMorgan Chase, JPMorgan, First, Bank, Citigroup, ExxonMobil, Natural Resources, Midland Basins, New York Gov, New York, United Federation of Teachers Manhattan, New Locations: Wells Fargo, BlackRock, United States, Midland , Texas, Delaware, Midland, New York
Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., July 26, 2023. The U.S. central bank on Wednesday kept its key lending rate steady, as expected, but indicated another hike is possible as it and other central banks tighten policy to tame inflation. Major equity indices in Europe and on Wall Street fell more than 1% on concerns higher rates will curb growth. /FRXMirroring a rise in Treasury yields, Germany's 10-year government bond yield touched a fresh six-month high of 2.73% and Britain's 10-year gilt yield rose to 4.29% after falling on Wednesday to its lowest since July. Gold extended its decline for a third straight day as the dollar and Treasury yields rallied on the Fed's warning of a possible additional rate hike.
Persons: Brendan McDermid, there's, Michael Arone, Jack Ablin, it's, John Hardy, Hardy, Brent, Xie Yu, Marguerita Choy, Tomasz Janowski, Deepa Babington Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Federal Reserve, Swiss, Bank of England, Swiss National Bank, Fed, State Street Global Advisors, Reuters, Treasury, Cresset Capital Management, Saxo Bank, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Sterling, Reuters Graphics, U.S, West Texas Intermediate, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, Norway, Sweden, Europe, Boston, Pebble Beach , Florida, Hong Kong
CNN —Wall Street’s optimism has edged up in recent weeks after an August slump to levels not seen since the collapse of several regional banks earlier this year. CNN’s Fear & Greed Index, which tracks seven different barometers for market sentiment, has oscillated between “neutral” and “greed” territory this month after plunging to a “fear” reading mid-August. The broad-based S&P 500 index has roared 16% higher this year, propped up by Wall Street’s infatuation with artificial intelligence that’s driven a powerful rally in tech stocks. While the Fed’s policy meeting is taking place next week, there’s a laundry list of factors stoking uncertainty in the market. September has historically been the worst month for stocks, and it could live up to its reputation this year.
Persons: it’s, August’s selloff, , Eric Sterner, Wall, Michael Arone, Arone, Chris Isidore, , Gary Quirk, Quirk, epitomize, Birkenstock Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, CNN, Apollon Wealth Management, Federal Reserve, Stocks, State Street Global Advisors, American, of, United Auto Workers, Stellantis, Jeep, Dodge, Chrysler, Samsung, UAW, Wall Street, US Securities and Exchange Commission, New York Stock Exchange, Financial Locations: Kokomo , Indiana, New York, United States
Powell also acknowledged that price pressures have eased in his much-anticipated morning speech at the Economic Policy Symposium at Jackson Hole, Wyoming. Powell "is demonstrating that he is pleased with how far monetary policy has come and how inflation has been reduced. All of the major S&P 500 sectors rose, with consumer discretionary (.SPLRCD), technology (.SPLRCT) and energy (.SPNY) among the top gainers. Reuters GraphicsThe S&P 500 and Nasdaq also ended higher for the week, with the Nasdaq rising about 2.3% and ending a three-week streak of losses. The S&P 500 posted 6 new 52-week highs and 7 new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 23 new highs and 202 new lows.
Persons: Jerome Powell, Powell, Michael Arone, Brendan McDermid, Nordstrom, Caroline Valetkevitch, Amruta Khandekar, Lewis Krauskopf, Shinjini Ganguli, Deepa Babington Organizations: Marvell Technology, Nordstrom, Dow, Nasdaq, Federal, State Street Global Advisors, Dow Jones, Reuters, Traders, New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Hostess Brands, Hawaiian Electric Industries, NYSE, Thomson Locations: U.S, , Wyoming, Boston, New York City, Hawaii, Maui
Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., July 19, 2023. Powell also acknowledged that price pressures have eased in his much-anticipated morning speech at the Economic Policy Symposium at Jackson Hole, Wyoming. According to preliminary data, the S&P 500 (.SPX) gained 29.01 points, or 0.66%, to end at 4,405.32 points, while the Nasdaq Composite (.IXIC) gained 125.16 points, or 0.93%, to 13,589.13. All of the major S&P 500 sectors ended higher, with energy (.SPNY), consumer discretionary (.SPLRCD) and technology (.SPLRCT) among the top gainers. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq also ended higher for the week, with the market gaining in the run up to Nvidia's (NVDA.O) second-quarter results.
Persons: Brendan McDermid, Jerome Powell, Powell, Michael Arone, Nordstrom, Amruta Khandekar, Lewis Krauskopf, Shinjini Ganguli, Deepa Babington Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Marvell Technology, Nordstrom, Federal, Nasdaq, Dow Jones, State Street Global Advisors, Hostess Brands, Reuters, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, , Wyoming, Boston, Hawaii, Maui, New York
"We will proceed carefully as we decide whether to tighten further or, instead, to hold the policy rate constant and await further data," Powell said in a keynote address to the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium. "It is the Fed’s job to bring inflation down to our 2% goal, and we will do so. The Fed has raised rates by 5.25 percentage points since March 2022, and inflation by the Fed's preferred gauge has moved down to 3.3% from its peak of 7% last summer. Although the decline was a "welcome development," Powell said, inflation "remains too high." Fed policymakers will also meet in November and December.
Persons: JACKSON, Jerome Powell, Powell, Jackson, Elizabeth Frantz, “ Powell, Michael Arone, Loretta Mester, Austan Goolsbee, Howard Schneider, Ann Saphir, Michael S, Lewis Krauskopf, Andrea Ricci Organizations: Federal, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, Federal Reserve, Committee, REUTERS, Fed, State Street Global Advisors, Cleveland Fed, Chicago Fed, Derby, Thomson Locations: , Wyoming, U.S, Washington , U.S
U.S. Treasury yields were slightly higher on Friday, as traders await Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's comments at the central bank's Jackson Hole symposium. The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note added more than 1 basis point to 4.247%, while the yield on the 30-year Treasury bond inched higher to 4.309%. Markets will be closely watching Powell's comments for hints on the probable path of U.S. monetary policy. As a result, there won't be any curtain calls at Jackson Hole. There are no major economic data releases or Treasury auctions scheduled for Friday.
Persons: Jerome Powell's, Michael Arone, Powell, Arone Organizations: Treasury, Federal, Fed Locations: Wyoming
On opening day, the WLD token surged from $1.70 to $3.58, up by about 110.6%, according to CoinMarketCap data compiled by Bloomberg. Isaac Patka, a former electrical engineer in the semiconductor industry turned crypto developer in 2017, believes the hype will soon fade. People could be exploited by signing up to get their irises scanned and then sell their accounts for a little bit of money in exchange for giving up their identity, Patka added. Now, what I mean by that is, if you're using a blockchain, it gets written to the blockchain," Arone said. You also run the risk of changes to the system, Arone added.
Persons: Isaac Patka, Geoffrey Arone, Sam Altman, aren't, it's, Patka, Worldcoin, Shield3, Arone, there's Organizations: Bloomberg, Arrington Capital, Experian, Clear
So what does the rest of the year have in store for Wall Street? Unfortunately, Wall Street is unlikely to receive the clarity it seeks anytime soon. Still, economists at the Federal Reserve believe that a recession seems more likely by the end of 2023 than not. AI boom: Wall Street has a lot to worry about, but there’s at least one source of market euphoria: artificial intelligence. Satisfying your sweet tooth is about to get more expensiveIf you have a sweet tooth, take note: Cocoa prices have been soaring — and that could drive chocolate prices higher.
Persons: it’s, Rachel, Ross, Mulder, Scully, Sam, Diane, Vladimir, Estragon, Samuel Beckett’s, , Michael Arone, Matthew Bartolini, Darrell Cronk, , Arif Husain, Rowe Price, Wells, Justin Thomson, Liz Ann Sonders, Charles Schwab, Samantha Delouya, It’s, Danielle Wiener, Bronner, El, Paul Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, New York CNN, Investors, State, Federal Reserve, JPMorgan, Wells, Investment Institute, Silicon Valley Bank, Signature Bank, First, State Street, JPMorgan Chase, , , OceanGate Expeditions, Federal Aviation Administration, Virgin Galactic, SpaceX, Rabobank Locations: New York, Silicon, First Republic, Washington, Europe, Asia, United States, China
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailThis is the first dual bear market in stocks and bonds in history: State Streets' Michael AroneMichael Arone, State Street Global Advisors chief investment strategist, and Tim Seymour, Seymour Asset Management CIO, join 'Power Lunch' to discuss the dual bear market in stocks and bonds, investing in value and small-cap stocks, and concerning macroeconomic conditions.
Persons: Michael Arone Michael Arone, Tim Seymour Organizations: Street Global Advisors, Seymour, Management
Debt ceiling optimism helps lift S&P 500, Nasdaq
  + stars: | 2023-05-18 | by ( Chuck Mikolajczak | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +4 min
The benchmark S&P 500 index (.SPX) rebounded from early declines on news that top U.S. congressional Republican Kevin McCarthy said a deal to raise or suspend the debt ceiling could potentially be reached in time to hold a House vote next week. On Wednesday, President Joe Biden and McCarthy reiterated their aim to strike a deal soon to raise the $31.4 trillion federal debt ceiling and agreed to talk as soon as Sunday. The debt ceiling has drawn attention away from uncertainty about the Federal Reserve's stance on interest rates. Declining issues outnumbered advancers on the NYSE by a 1.12-to-1 ratio; on Nasdaq, a 1.17-to-1 ratio favored decliners. The S&P 500 posted 23 new 52-week highs and seven new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 77 new highs and 74 new lows.
NEW YORK, May 12 (Reuters) - A U.S. stocks rally is leaving behind smaller companies, a sign that investors may be bracing for economic turmoil ahead. "Typically in a recession, small caps underperform." Last month it downgraded its view on U.S. small caps from "unfavorable" to "most unfavorable." Some investors are more upbeat about the outlook for small caps, particularly when looking beyond the next several months. One reason is that small caps, being sensitive to economic fluctuations, tend to shine early in a market recovery.
It increased interest rates by a quarter of a percentage point, as expected, and signaled it could pause further hikes. The unanimous decision lifted the U.S. central bank's benchmark overnight interest rate to the 5.00%-5.25% range, the 10th consecutive increase since March 2022. Powell said the Fed still views inflation as too high, and said it was too soon to say the rate hike cycle is over. All of the major S&P 500 sectors ended lower, with energy (.SPNY) and financials (.SPSY) down the most. The S&P 500 posted 24 new 52-week highs and 12 new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 64 new highs and 266 new lows.
[1/3] Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., May 3, 2023. The dollar held onto earlier losses on the prospect of a rate hiking pause. U.S. Treasury yields yields fell on the Fed's signal that it could pause in its tightening cycle at the next few meetings. Benchmark 10-year notes were down 7.3 basis points to 3.366%, from 3.439% late on Tuesday. The 30-year bond was last down 4.8 basis points to yield 3.6838% while the 2-year note yield was last was down 10.5 basis points to yield 3.8748%.
While inflation has come down and other economic data point to a cooling economy, the labor market has remained remarkably resilient. The labor market is cooling but not rapidly or significantly, and further rate hikes can’t be ruled out. More trouble for commercial real estateA few weeks ago, Before the Bell wrote about big problems brewing in the $20 trillion commercial real estate industry. In a worst-case scenario, anxiety about bank lending to commercial real estate could spiral, prompting customers to yank their deposits. The proportion of commercial office mortgages where borrowers are behind with payments is rising, according to Trepp, which provides data on commercial real estate.
NEW YORK, March 17 (Reuters) - Whipsawed U.S. stocks have gained an unexpected ally in recent days - a historic plunge in bond yields. The volatility in fixed income markets has unsettled investors, and falling yields can reflect expectations that the Fed will cut rates because of a hit to growth. The index finished up 1.4% for the week, with strength in technology stocks outweighing sharp declines in bank shares. Tech stocks vs US bond yieldsThe near-term trajectory of yields will likely hinge on next week's Federal Reserve meeting. The S&P 500 trades at 17.5 times forward earnings estimates compared to its historic average P/E of 15.6 times, according to Refinitiv Datastream.
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